AGP Executive Report

Lithuania–US Deterrence Talks: Lithuania has started discussions with the United States on possible deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons, with Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas stressing any move would only be considered in a crisis or war, while the constitutional ban remains the main legal hurdle. US Troop Rotation Clarity: Kaunas says the next rotation of U.S. troops is still sensitive, but the Homeland Union’s chairman argues Lithuania should get a clearer picture within weeks. EU Security & Sanctions: The European Commission is set to tighten visa rules for Russian nationals next January, responding to complaints from Schengen states including Lithuania over uneven implementation. Schengen Border Politics: Germany rejected EU pressure to scrap internal border checks, arguing they work against illegal migration. Critical Infrastructure Protection: Seventeen countries launched GUIDE, a new framework to defend undersea telecom and energy cables, with Lithuania among the participants. Economic Security: At the Brussels Economic Security Forum, EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič promised a new instrument to help firms diversify suppliers and cut reliance on China. Energy Grid Cybersecurity: Lithuania’s grid operators can now disconnect solar plants that don’t meet cybersecurity requirements, tightening rules first announced in 2024. Ukraine Peace Diplomacy: Ukraine’s president urged direct talks with Vladimir Putin, while a Lithuanian Catholic nuncio backed peace initiatives after Zelenskyy’s open letter. Local Spotlight: Five Lithuanian restaurants earned Michelin stars in the new Lithuania guide.

US–Lithuania Nuclear Talks: Lithuania is in discussions with the United States about possible expanded nuclear sharing/hosting, with Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas saying the country is “not standing on the sidelines,” as NATO nuclear roles and any future US posture in Europe remain under debate. Baltic Air Policing: French Rafale jets intercepted multiple Russian aircraft over the Baltic in NATO Baltic Air Policing, including flights without flight plans or radio contact, with officials calling it above-normal activity and provocations. Parliament & Ukraine Claims: The Seimas ratified a Hague convention establishing a Ukraine claims commission to assess and decide compensation for damage caused by Russia’s violations of international law. Foreign Ministry Politics: In the Government Hour, Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys faced internal party chatter about possible replacement, but Ruginienė publicly backed him and said he is doing a good job. Security & Drones: Lithuania is also moving to adapt balloon interception systems for drone defence and is considering a dedicated military unit for drone warfare as the region grapples with persistent drone threats. EU Visa Pressure on Russians: Lithuania joined a coalition pushing the EU for tougher tourist visa rules for Russian nationals ahead of the summer season. Ukraine War Volunteers: A Lithuanian volunteer fighter was reported missing in Ukraine after a mission, with family informed.

Nuclear Deterrence Talks: Lithuania signals it’s in talks with the U.S. about possible hosting of nuclear weapons, as NATO nuclear-sharing debates return to the spotlight amid concerns over future U.S. presence. Baltic Air Policing: NATO scrambled fighters after intercepting six Russian aircraft over the Baltic, with France reporting unusually frequent “provocations” tied to the air policing mission protecting Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. EU Visa Pressure on Russians: Sweden and a coalition including Lithuania are pushing the EU for tighter, more binding rules to deny Russian tourist visas, arguing “shopping weekends” undermine solidarity while Ukrainians fight and die. Lithuania-Russia Legal Row: Russia protested Lithuania’s plans to remove Soviet military burial sites, escalating a dispute that also feeds broader “legal warfare” claims. Security Cooperation: Ukraine says it will send counter-drone experts to Baltic states, while Lithuania and Ukraine expand defence innovation cooperation. EV Infrastructure: The European Investment Bank is partnering with Ireland to speed EV charging rollouts—an EU policy signal that could shape regional infrastructure priorities. Local Law Enforcement: Northern Ireland police arrested a woman wanted in Lithuania for serious child sex offences, found hiding in a wardrobe in Coalisland.

NATO & Baltic Security: NATO launched the scaled-down BALTOPS 26 naval exercise in the Baltic Sea near Russia’s borders, running to June 19 with about 20 ships and 6,000 troops from 16 countries including Lithuania. Nuclear Deterrence Talks: Poland and Lithuania confirmed early discussions on their potential role in NATO nuclear deterrence built around U.S. weapons in Europe, with Lithuania saying it is “not standing on the sidelines.” U.S. Troop Rotation Uncertainty: Lithuania’s defense minister says the next U.S. troop rotation is under review after about 1,000 U.S. soldiers began redeployment, leaving the country without a substantial American contingent for the first time in years. Shelter Readiness Scrutiny: A drone alert in Vilnius exposed gaps in shelter access, with residents reporting locked or hard-to-reach underground shelters. Ukraine Drone Support: Zelensky said Ukraine will send counter-drone experts to Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Romania to share experience and interceptor know-how. Cross-border Justice: A 23-year-old woman wanted in Lithuania for serious child sexual offences was arrested in Northern Ireland after being found hiding in a wardrobe and is set to face an extradition court. EU Visa Pressure on Russians: 11 EU and partner countries, including Lithuania, urged the European Commission to tighten Schengen visa rules for Russians, citing high tourist visa numbers amid the war in Ukraine.

Nuclear Deterrence Talks: Lithuania says it’s in discussions with the US about hosting American nuclear weapons, while President Nausėda has floated amending the constitution to allow it—amid reports Washington may expand NATO nuclear sharing eastward. Parliament & Coalition Politics: Media reports suggest the LSDP council may consider replacing Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys, after questions over whether his foreign-policy line fully matches government guidance. Shelter Readiness: A drone alert in Vilnius exposed “blind spots” in public air-raid shelter access, with residents finding shelters locked and poorly maintained. US Troop Rotation: About 1,000 US soldiers have begun redeploying from Lithuania; the next rotation is “under review,” leaving uncertainty over future American presence. Drone Counter-Training: Zelenskyy says Ukraine will send drone countermeasure instructors to Lithuania and other Baltic states. Cross-Border Policing: UK police arrested a woman wanted by Lithuania for serious child sex offences, found hiding in a wardrobe under a Lithuanian extradition warrant. Migration Trend: Lithuania reports the number of returnees has nearly doubled compared with last year, with many settling in major cities.

U.S.-Lithuania Defence Update: More than 1,000 U.S. service members and equipment have started withdrawing from Lithuania after a rotational deployment, while the next rotation’s timing and size remain “under review,” with Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas saying Vilnius has assurances the presence will continue but details are still unclear. Shelter Readiness: A drone alert in Vilnius exposed “blind spots” in Lithuania’s shelter access, with residents reporting locked underground shelters and poor upkeep just as the region faces spillover risks from the Ukraine war. NATO Parliamentary Push: NATO PA lawmakers meeting in Vilnius adopted a declaration urging parliaments to help turn defence pledges into “combat-ready” capabilities ahead of the Ankara summit, including accelerating delivery timelines for the 5% GDP goal. EU Defence Finance (SAFE): The EU’s €150bn SAFE rearmament borrowing plan is drawing pushback, with disputes over how much member states must spend and how procurement rules will work in practice. Ukraine-Lithuania Tech Cooperation: Ukraine and Lithuania signed a letter of intent for “Brave Lithuania,” a joint grant program to fund defence innovation, especially unmanned systems and electronic warfare. Inflation Watch: Eurozone inflation rose to 3.2% in May, with energy and services driving pressure and strengthening expectations for ECB rate action.

US Troops in Lithuania: Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas says the next U.S. rotation is “under review,” with the current contingent leaving as scheduled and a replacement not yet confirmed—raising the prospect Lithuania could be without a permanently rotating U.S. armored battalion for the first time since 2020. Ukraine–Lithuania Defence Innovation: Vilnius and Kyiv signed a letter of intent to launch “Brave Lithuania,” a joint grant program for defence tech startups, targeting drones, electronic warfare, AI, and communications, with NATO-Ukraine Defence Innovators Forum backing. NATO Parliamentary Assembly in Vilnius: Lawmakers discussed collective defence, hybrid threats, and faster support for Ukraine, adopting a joint declaration warning Russia remains a long-term threat. EU Pay Transparency: From June 7, EU rules require employers to share pay ranges and respond to pay inquiries, with Lithuania among the early adopters. EU–Armenia Visa Liberalisation: The EU will fund €2.2m for Armenia’s visa liberalisation reforms, implemented in partnership with Lithuania. Eurozone Inflation: May inflation rose to 3.2% as energy prices climbed, keeping pressure on households and businesses. Vilnius Pink Soup Fest: Tens of thousands packed the capital for the Pink Soup Fest, turning saltibarsciai into a major summer tourism draw.

Russia-Lithuania Diplomatic Row: Moscow summoned Lithuania’s chargé d’affaires over the exhumation of Soviet soldiers’ graves in Vievis, calling it “desecration” and warning of criminal liability. NATO Deterrence & Drone Response: NATO’s deputy secretary general Radmila Shekerinska urged faster defence investment and innovation as Lithuania hosts NATO Parliamentary Assembly events; separately, the US and UK ran joint counter-drone exercises near the Belarus border. EU Defence Industry Push: EU defence commissioner Andrius Kubilius called for a stronger European pillar inside NATO and a more unified defence market, while SAFE loan talks continue as some states weigh bigger or second allocations. Brave Lithuania Programme: Lithuania and Ukraine launched “Brave Lithuania” to speed up defence-tech development, focusing on unmanned systems, electronic warfare, AI, and battlefield communications, with SAFE financing in the mix. Energy Policy: Lithuania’s gas transmission service prices for 2027 were cut by 15.8% after regulator-approved tariff changes. Regional Security Context: UN officials warned of rising drone and missile spillover risks in the region, with Baltic states repeatedly reporting incursions.

Lithuania-Ukraine Defense Tech Push: Lithuania and Ukraine launched “Brave Lithuania,” a joint defence innovation programme to speed up unmanned systems, electronic warfare, AI, and battlefield communications, with Ukraine ready to send experts and both sides pointing to SAFE financing for joint projects. Drone-Airspace Row: Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė again rejected Russian claims that Baltic airspace was used for drone strikes, saying it’s disinformation and stressing Russia is responsible for any threats to the region; the dispute follows Kaliningrad’s first reported drone-related alert and flight restrictions. NATO Parliamentary Momentum in Vilnius: President Gitanas Nausėda told NATO PA lawmakers Lithuania must act with unity as security rules are under pressure, while NATO PA adopted a declaration backing stronger deterrence and defence. Air Defence & Drone Unit: Lithuania plans a dedicated drone-warfare formation (ANBO) to centralize unmanned aviation capabilities and accelerate operator training. Energy Policy: Lithuania approved 2027 gas transmission service prices that fall 15.8%, and Ukraine agreed long-term LNG supplies via the Klaipėda terminal to strengthen resilience. SAFE Defence Loans: The EU Commission said a second SAFE allocation could be possible if Italy cuts its planned defence-loan request, with Lithuania among countries already signed up.

Baltic Security & Airspace: Lithuania and the region are bracing for more drone-related pressure as Zelensky says Ukraine tries to intercept all Russian drones headed toward partner countries, while experts debate whether rising Baltic incursions are caused by rerouting, GPS disruption, or deliberate interference. Legal Escalation: Russia says it is preparing a UN International Court of Justice case against Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia over alleged discrimination against Russian speakers, framing it as a refusal to negotiate. Deterrence & Kaliningrad: Putin warns NATO Baltic states that any territory threatening Russia—including Kaliningrad—could be treated as a legitimate target, ratcheting up tensions after Lithuanian NATO-related comments. Local Governance & Oversight: Estonia launches administrative supervision into the Artists’ Association after a €700,000 theft via a telephone scam, focusing on grant use and internal controls. Lithuania’s Nuclear Safety: An IAEA review praises Lithuania’s nuclear and radiation safety system as “robust and mature,” with recommendations aimed at further strengthening oversight and public communication. NATO Parliamentary Assembly: Lawmakers stress faster defence innovation, protection of critical infrastructure, and scaling technologies, citing Ukraine’s wartime lessons.

NATO in Vilnius: The NATO Parliamentary Assembly urged faster, sustained support for Ukraine and pushed lawmakers to help speed collective defence, protect critical infrastructure and counter hybrid threats ahead of the July summit. Lithuania’s nuclear oversight: An IAEA review praised Lithuania’s “robust and mature” nuclear and radiation safety system, highlighting continued efforts to strengthen regulation and public communication as Ignalina is decommissioned. Baltic security tensions: Putin warned NATO states that any territory seen as threatening Russia—including around Kaliningrad—could become a “legitimate target,” while Lithuania’s defence leadership warns Russia’s war-driven economy may look next to the Baltics. Russian-speaker dispute at UN court: Russia says it will take Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to the UN’s top court over alleged crackdowns on Russian-speaking residents. Underwater infrastructure security: Lithuania joined a new multi-country framework (GUIDE) to improve defence cooperation for critical underwater cables and energy/telecom networks. Public transport affordability: Lithuania’s temporary train-fare cut is highlighted as Europe debates how to ease the fuel-price squeeze without long-term fiscal damage.

NATO Support for Ukraine: The NATO Parliamentary Assembly, meeting in Vilnius, urged faster and sustained political, economic, financial and military backing for Ukraine ahead of the July summit in Ankara. Baltic Defence Build-up: Lithuania is moving ahead with major land capability plans, including buying Patria 6×6 armoured vehicles for its 1st Division and preparing for deeper NATO command and deterrence roles in the Baltics, with a German-Dutch-led NATO command centre in Estonia. Airspace and Drone Pressure: French Rafales intercepted Russian Su-30s during NATO Baltic Air Policing, while Romania condemned a Russian drone crash into an apartment building near the Ukraine border—another reminder of how drone incidents are testing NATO’s readiness. Undersea Security Pact: Seventeen countries, including Lithuania, backed new “GUIDE” principles to protect critical underwater cables and energy infrastructure, with China and the US notably absent. Lithuania in the Wider NATO Debate: Separate reporting highlights growing concern about US contributions and the need for Europe to shoulder more of its defence.

Baltic Security & Airspace: Lithuania’s defense leadership is pushing a harder line as Russia’s drone and GPS disruption tactics spread across NATO’s eastern flank, with reports saying Russian GPS spoofing has steered Ukrainian drones into NATO airspace and forced Vilnius into shelter and flight disruptions. NATO Readiness: Germany’s 45th Armoured Brigade is now actively training in Lithuania under “Freedom Shield,” with German troops and tanks joining multinational drills focused on drones, artillery and integrated battlefield operations. Romania Drone Incident: A Russian drone that went astray during attacks on Ukraine crashed into an apartment building in Galati, Romania, injuring two and triggering NATO and EU condemnation, while Romania urged faster anti-drone support. Lithuanian Defense Spending: At the Shangri-La Dialogue, Lithuania’s defense minister said the country is spending 5.38% of GDP on defense and highlighted a German brigade deployment and new ammunition/drone production plans. EU Trade Policy: The European Commission is preparing broader China trade defenses—tariffs, quotas and safeguards—after the EU-China deficit reportedly hit about €360 billion, with Lithuania among states pushing for tougher measures. Digital Payments: The Bank of Lithuania reiterated the case for a digital euro that works offline and across the euro area, aiming to close gaps in e-commerce connectivity.

Romania Drone Crisis: A Russian drone that went astray during attacks on Ukraine crashed into an apartment building in Galați, Romania, injuring two and forcing evacuations; Bucharest says it’s a serious violation of international law and is pushing NATO for faster anti-drone support. Putin’s Response: Vladimir Putin questioned whether the drone was Russian and floated a possible Ukrainian origin, while NATO and EU leaders condemned the incident as reckless escalation. Baltic Security Pressure: The episode feeds into wider Baltic readiness as Lithuania and partners warn about threats to NATO’s eastern flank, including Kaliningrad-related rhetoric from Moscow. Lithuania’s Defence Funding: The EU’s SAFE defence-loan scheme is moving: Poland received its first payment, and Lithuania is among the early signatories, aiming to speed up defence procurement. EU-China Trade Tension: EU leaders also debated tougher, more consistent responses to what they call unsustainable trade and investment dependence on China, with “de-risking” but not “decoupling” as the line. Border Fortifications in the Region: Latvia has begun installing “dragon’s teeth” anti-tank barriers along its Russia border, expanding the Baltic Defense Line.

Lithuanian Defence Procurement: Lithuania’s State Defence Council approved buying 936 Patria 6×6 wheeled armored vehicles for a new Armed Forces division, with a contract expected in 2027 and deliveries running to 2036; Nausėda says procurement should include production work in Lithuania, and the vehicles are set to replace the M113 fleet in multiple roles. NATO Eastern Flank Pressure: NATO and EU officials reacted to a Russian drone strike on a Romanian apartment block in Galați, calling it a serious violation of EU airspace and urging faster anti-drone capability transfers; NATO chief Mark Rutte said the alliance is ready to defend “every inch” and warned Russia’s actions “don’t stop at the border.” EU Ukraine Talks Line: EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas ruled out Europe acting as a “neutral mediator” between Ukraine and Russia, stressing the bloc must coordinate red lines before any outreach. Baltic Border Resilience: Latvia has started installing “dragon’s teeth” anti-tank barriers along its border with Russia as NATO prepares new command arrangements for Estonia and Latvia. Sports and Education Restrictions: Lithuania is considering a legal ban on Russians and Belarusians taking part in international sports and scientific events, beyond existing rules requiring declarations and symbol bans. Cybersecurity Watch: Lithuania is probing a major data leak involving 600,000 state register records, with reporting pointing to possible foreign involvement.

Lithuania’s Defence Procurement: Lithuania has authorized the purchase of 936 Patria 6x6 multi-purpose armored personnel carriers, aiming to transport up to 20,000 troops safely and to localize part of production in Lithuania; the deal is set to be signed with Patria in 2027. NATO Command Shift in the Baltics: Germany and the Netherlands will jointly lead a new NATO command centre in Estonia, with the 1 German-Netherlands Corps taking a key role in planning and deterrence on NATO’s eastern flank. EU Diplomacy on Ukraine Talks: EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas rejected the idea of the EU acting as a “neutral mediator” between Ukraine and Russia, warning that debates over who negotiates are a Russian “trap.” Lithuania Data Security: Lithuania is investigating a major cyber breach involving 600,000 leaked state registry records, with suspicion of foreign involvement. Latvia Government Reset: Latvia’s parliament approved a new centre-right coalition government led by Andris Kulbergs after the previous coalition collapsed over stray drone incidents linked to Ukraine. Baltic Border Fortifications: Latvia has started installing “dragon’s teeth” anti-tank barriers along the Russia border as part of the Baltic Defence Line. EU-China Trade Pressure: Spain is reportedly backing away from a tougher China trade-defence push, as EU leaders prepare fresh debate on how to protect industry.